There are a few hours when giants Manchester City and Real Madrid clash at the Etihad. The Sky Blues are in their worst season in 15 years, but Los Merengues also look vulnerable.
Here are reasons why Manchester City are winning, from an injured Real Madrid defence to a very hungry Erling Braut Haaland.
Normally, the two would meet later in the tournament, but due to Real Madrid only winning three out of eight games to finish 22nd out of 36 teams.
It is the fourth season in a row where City face Madrid in the knockout phase, and the fifth time in six seasons. City knocked out Madrid in 2019-20 and 2022-23, but succumbed to Los Blancos in last season’s quarter-finals on penalties after losing in the dramatic semi-finals of 2021-22. The year before Guardiola took charge of City, with Manuel Pellegrini in charge, they were beaten in the semi-finals.
Real Madrid have no defence
Manchester City have had their share of defensive injury problems this season, but their problems are nothing compared to Madrid, whose backline has been repeatedly paralysed by long absences. Antonio Rudiger, arguably Madrid’s most crucial player in last season’s quarter-final clash with City, will miss the first leg and most likely the second with a hamstring injury, while Eder Militao’s season came to a brutal end in November when he suffered another cruciate ligament tear in as many years. David Alaba, meanwhile, only returned to action in January after more than a year out after knee surgery, only to injure his adductor at the beginning of this month.
That means Madrid will head to Manchester with only one natural centre-back in Raul Asencio, who only made his first-team debut in November. He may be loved by Madridistas for his tendency to get in the opponent’s face, but the 21-year-old is still a raw and inexperienced player. He is set to work with defensive midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni at the heart of the defence.
Madrid are also exhausted as a full-back, having lost Dani Carvajal early in the season to a serious knee injury before the ever-reliable Lucas Vazquez limped out of Saturday’s derby match against Atletico Madrid due to a hamstring problem.
Vinicius has lost his mojo
There was a moment in Real’s 1-1 draw with Atletico when Vinicius Jr picked up the ball in the middle of the pitch and lifted the Bernabeu crowd to his feet as he headed straight for goal, only to send the ball off the near post. It encapsulated a frustrating final period for the Brazilian, who has retired lately while Kylian Mbappe has come to the fore for Carlo Ancelotti’s club.
Vinicius has failed to score in eight of his last 10 games in all competitions and has not found the net in La Liga since November. The Brazilian achieved top form soon after missing the Ballon d’Or to Rodri in October, hitting hat-tricks against Osasuna and Borussia Dortmund amid an insane run of 10 goals in eight games, but his flow was disrupted by a muscle injury at the end of November and again when he was sent off against Valencia in January, for which he was suspended for two games.
The uncertainty surrounding Vinicius’ Real Madrid future amid a hugely tempting offer from Saudi Arabia has only added to the intrigue surrounding the Brazilian, who has dropped dramatically from being the club’s talisman last season to playing second fiddle to Mbappe, who has scored nine times in his last eight games.
Losing in big games City
have really struggled against the top teams this season, having been outclassed by Arsenal and Liverpool in the Premier League, while they even lost to the basketball cause that is Manchester United. They have also been beaten by European giants Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain.
But they can take solace in the fact that Madrid haven’t fared much better in their crunch match. Real Madrid were crushed 4-0 by Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabeu and humiliated again by the Catalans in the Supercopa final in Saudi Arabia. They have drawn both games with Atletico Madrid in La Liga and lost to Athletic Club.
The team that Pep Guardiola rightly refers to as “kings of competition” has also struggled to live up to its status in the Champions League. They lost 3-1 at home to AC Milan and were well beaten by Liverpool at Anfield, and it was only thanks to clubs like Brest and Red Bull Salzburg that they were able to make up for their dismal start to the league phase and qualify for the play-offs.
New signings have something to prove City
used the January transfer window for classic retail therapy, trying to fix their problems by spending more money than all other Premier League clubs combined. And there can be no doubt that Guardiola now has a much stronger and varied squad as a result of signing Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis and Nico Gonzalez for a combined £180 million.
The new arrivals were not qualified for the last two league phase games, but are free to make Champions League appearances for City. Marmoush will be looking to make his mark in Europe’s top competition for the first time after contributing 30 goals in the first half of the season with Eintracht Frankfurt, with only his compatriot Mohamed Salah getting more goals or assists than him in Europe’s top five leagues. He’s had a frustrating start to life with City, but it’s probably only a matter of time before he starts banging in goals for the Sky Blues.
Nico, City’s latest arrival, will also relish the prospect of facing Real Madrid and returning to the Champions League after falling down to the Europa League with Porto this season. The Spaniard got a tough introduction to English football when he was forced off injured against Leyton Orient in Saturday’s FA Cup match, but there is hope that it won’t keep him out of this game, as his athleticism and passing ability will be key to preventing City from being overwhelmed in midfield.
Khusanov’s confidence, meanwhile, will be much improved after his first nightmare game against Chelsea following his impactful game from the bench in east London, when he scored and made a decisive tackle in the FA Cup.
Haaland rested and fired up
Haaland was humiliated at the Emirates Stadium last week when young Arsenal upstart Myles Lewis-Skelly mocked his celebration, but he’s had more than a week to reflect and fire himself up for the stage he loves most: Champions League knockouts. While his teammates struggled in east London against League One opponents, Haaland got the weekend off to rest his legs and sharpen his thoughts for the biggest game of the season.
Haaland has a lot to prove in this match. He hasn’t scored in any of his four previous meetings against Real Madrid – the club he turned down to move to City in 2022 – and he knows more than anyone that he needs to improve his goal record in games like this. But hell has no fury that a Haaland despised, and after having more than a week to ponder what happened in north London, he will enjoy the chance to prove the doubters wrong, especially against Madrid’s makeshift defence.
Dias said, “Just like the rest of us, Erling wants to be in this competition and win it, so I’m sure he’ll be hungry enough to be there and perform.”
Real Madrid
Real Madrid may have given him nightmares on several occasions, but Guardiola’s record against Los Blancos is still very impressive. He has faced them 25 times as a manager and won more than half, with 13 wins, six draws and six losses. The Catalan has overseen some of Madrid’s most harrowing nights, steering Barcelona’s 6-2 and 5-0 La Liga victories, as well as removing the infamous Champions League semi-final in 2011.
As City boss, he has won four, drawn three and lost only once to Madrid (the defeat at the Bernabeu in the 2022 semi-finals). When we lost in the last minutes at the Bernabeu, they were the favourites and then we beat them 4-0,” Guardiola said before Tuesday’s first leg. “At the end of the day, they’re a big competitor. We know that. We have met them many times and we know how in the tough moments they bring out the best of themselves.”
There are two additional motivations for Guardiola. He has made it to the last 16 in the Champions League in each of his 15 seasons as manager, so he will be desperate to avoid his earliest elimination from the competition ever. And then there is the fact that he has won Europe’s biggest award three times, two fewer than the record holder Ancelotti.