The seven most overpriced players of the year

The transfer market has exploded this summer. Never before have so many deals passed the magic 100 million euro mark – and clubs are spending money like never before.

The Premier League clubs in particular have shown enormous purchasing power. But history shows that transfers to over 100 million euros often end in flops. Spending a lot of money is no substitute for spending it wisely.

Chelsea start historic €300 million sales wave – first confirmation in place

But who are the most overpriced players this summer?

FootballTransfers have looked into the matter. Using our Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) – which is based on thousands of historical transfers and hundreds of data points from matches.

Several of the top trades stand out as very expensive. As many as seven players have been bought for at least 40 million euros over their ETV.

Here is the list – from least to most overpriced:

7. Gonçalo Ramos – PSG to AC Milan

Transfer fee: 74 million euros
ETV: €31.8 million
Overpaid: €42.2 million

PSG has made a good deal. They paid €65 million for the Portuguese three years ago, but he never managed to play his way into Luis Enrique’s team.

Still, there is a certain logic in Milan’s choice. Ramos’ ETV is low due to little playing time – but when he has played, he has scored. In Ligue 1 for PSG, he put in 0.64 goals per 90 minutes – about two goals in three full games. This may turn out to be smarter than the numbers suggest.

6. Marco Palestra – Atalanta to Chelsea

Transfer fee: 57 million euros
ETV: €12.4 million
Overpaid: €44.6 million

Palestra is the player on this list with by far the lowest ETV. Chelsea paid almost five times the estimated value to bring him to Stamford Bridge.

The Blues have a history of missing out on such trades, but with Xabi Alonso at the helm, they hope the Spaniard can outmanoeuvre the market. Still, the price for a player with only one session in Serie A behind him is very high.

5. Sandro Tonali – Newcastle to Tottenham

Transfer fee: 108 million euros
ETV: €59.9 million
Overpaid: €49.1 million

After a weak season, Newcastle got rid of Tonali – and Tottenham paid the club’s most expensive transfer ever to secure the Italian.

Spurs are spending big this summer, driven by desperation after last year’s relegation battle and Roberto De Zerbi’s ambitions for European play. They need Tonali at its very best to justify the price tag.

4. Morgan Rogers – Aston Villa to Chelsea

Transfer fee: 137.3 million euros
ETV: €73.4 million
Overpaid: €63.9 million

Rogers’ development over the past year and a half has been spectacular, and now it has been crowned with a record transfer to Chelsea.

He is coming off a season with 14 goals and 11 assists in all competitions – confirming his breakthrough from the previous year.

No doubt about the 24-year-old’s talent, Chelsea had to pay a huge premium to loosen their grip on Aston Villa, who were determined to keep him. Only a huge offer could make them not have to.

3. Elliot Anderson – Nottingham Forest to Manchester City

Transfer fee: 135 million euros
ETV: €69.4 million
Overpaid: €65.6 million

Another young, highly-rated England international on his way for a huge sum. City smashed the club’s transfer record to bring Anderson to the Etihad.

The desire for central midfielders among the Premier League’s traditional giants has made the market extremely competitive – and pushed the price of Anderson skyrocketing. Both Arsenal and Manchester United followed him closely, which Nottingham Forest took full advantage of.

2. Mateus Fernandes – West Ham to Tottenham

Transfer fee: 99 million euros
ETV: €28.7 million
Overpaid: €70.3 million

Another club in relegation battle – West Ham – who profited heavily from the big teams’ hunt for midfielders. Almost 100 million euros for Portuguese Fernandes.

The 22-year-old wasn’t even named in Roberto Martínez’s World Cup squad – outplayed by Samu Costa, who recently joined Al-Nassr for just €22 million.

Fernandes has Premier League experience and was closely followed by Manchester United, but Tottenham seem to have paid far above market price.

1. Yan Diomande – RB Leipzig to Real Madrid

Transfer fee: 125 million euros
ETV: €51.8 million
Overpaid: €73.2 million

The only non-Premier League deal on the list – and the most overpriced.

Yes, Diomande is a huge talent. But he has only one season in the Bundesliga behind him. Leipzig took advantage of the interest from Liverpool and PSG – who both turned down the award – to pressure Real Madrid to pay far more than market value.

This could still be a good deal for Madrid, but they will need to pick up every last drop of his potential to defend the price tag.

In short:

Tottenham have already spent over two billion, now they are throwing in a new billion-dollar bid