After Brazil was knocked out of Norway, it has become clear that Haaland and co. now occupy fifth place among the title contenders. At the same time, England has passed 10 percent – and Argentina and Spain remain on the podium.
Norway’s historic quarter-final place has sent them from a 2.8 percent chance of winning the World Cup – all the way up to 6.1 percent. Thus, they are the fifth biggest challenger for the trophy.
We in Sporten.com think it was appropriate to find out what Brazil, represented by the newspaper Gato Mestre, now thinks about the World Cup and especially about Norway’s chances of becoming champions. Norway is already historic, but will become even more historic if we win the whole thing. – And according to the newspaper itself, they have used powerful analysis tools.
Read on F7: Neymar says goodbye to Brazil the same place he made his debut in yellow
England, who knocked out Mexico on Azteca, have also climbed sharply. From 6.1 percent after the group stage, they have now risen to 10.6 percent – and are in fourth place.
Norway and England will now meet in the quarter-finals to decide one of the semi-final places.
Little changed at the top
With the favourites, little has happened: France still leads with a whopping 26.9 percent chance of winning the cup. Argentina and Spain still have to secure their places, but both have significant chances: 16.1 percent for Argentina and 15.4 percent for Spain.
Updated chances of winning the 2026 World Cup
| Teams | Chance |
|---|---|
| France | 26,9 % |
| Argentina | 16,1 % |
| Spain | 15,4 % |
| England | 10,6 % |
| Norway | 6,1 % |
| Morocco | 5,2 % |
| Portugal | 4,6 % |
| Belgium | 4,5 % |
| Switzerland | 4,4 % |
| Colombia | 3,1 % |
| United States | 1,9 % |
| Egypt | 1,2 % |
This is how the model calculates
The Gato Mestre team, in collaboration with economist Bruno Imaizumi, analyzes the teams based on qualification and the matches played during the World Cup. The odds change as the tournament progresses.
“This is the statistical picture of the moment,” Imaizumi explains. “It sums up the estimated chance of reaching each phase based on the current parameters in the model. It is not a definitive answer – just a probability that changes as the results are known.
The model uses a combination of attack and defense parameters, and estimates the match-by-match probabilities of each outcome. The most important data are, in order of priority:
- xG (expected goals based on position data)
- FIFA Ranking
- Squad quality – measured in market value from Transfermarkt
- History in the World Cup
The Gato Mestre team consists of journalists Arthur Sandes, Davi Barros, Felipe Tavares, Guilherme Maniaudet, Gustavo Figueiredo, Leandro Silva, Lorrayne Vieira, Roberto Maleson, Rodrigo Breves and Valmir Storti, as well as data scientists Bruno Benício and Vitor Patalano and programmer Gusthavo Macedo.
Neymar’s words to Ørjan Håskjold Nyland after Brazil’s penalty kick in injury time
