I don’t think the Norwegian national team manager Ståle Solbakken is enjoying Scotland’s prospects in the World Cup after they chose to skip the friendly match at short notice in the days before the event started. – But still, it doesn’t look good for our friends in kilts!.
In just over a day, Scotland’s chances of reaching the World Cup knockout rounds have fallen dramatically for the first time – from 42 percent to just 5.26 percent.
World Cup 2026: Full schedule, fixtures, schedule and results
They need four teams to finish third in their groups – but with a worse record than themselves. Results elsewhere have not helped Steve Clarke’s men either.
The 0-3 loss to Brazil in the last group match was a heavy blow. Scotland were left with just three points from the group stage – if they had managed four, they would probably have progressed. – “It is conceivable that a friendly match against one of the world’s best teams would have been wise ahead of the championship.”
Worse are the consequences of the size of the loss. The goal difference of -3 makes it far more difficult to finish ahead of other third-placed teams.
What has changed – and how can Scotland still move forward?
First, South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 to take one of the top two spots in their group. Thus, South Korea – who have a better goal difference than Scotland – dropped to third place.
Ecuador then beat Germany 2-1 in a surprise, and finished third with four points – enough to secure a place in the last eight.
Sweden then held Japan to a 1-1 draw and also qualified from third place with four points.
After that, Scotland’s chance was down to 6.89 percent according to Opta – but now it has been further reduced to 5.49 percent after Paraguay drew with Australia – a result that suited both teams.
Scotland are now in eighth place out of the 12 current third-placed teams – and are losing their grip on a knockout spot.
If the third teams finish on the same number of points, the ranking is determined by goal difference. This means that Scotland must hope that at least four third-placed teams do not reach three points – or that they do so with a worse goal difference than Scotland themselves.
As of now, there are four teams ranked below Scotland who have only played two games – and two others who stand with the same number of points, but with one game left to play.
Read: Nation with 40 million inhabitants copies Norway’s “Viking rowing” in the World Cup
What results does Scotland need?
There are eight groups left to play, and Scotland need four third-placed teams to get a worse record than themselves. This means that at least four of the following scenarios must occur:
Friday and Saturday night:
- Group I: Senegal and Iraq draw – or Iraq beats Senegal by a maximum of two goals.
- Group H: Uruguay loses to Spain.
- Group G: Iran loses to Egypt.
Saturday and Sunday night:
- Group L: Croatia loses to Ghana by at least three goals.
- Group K: DR Congo – Uzbekistan ends in a draw – or Uzbekistan wins by a maximum of three goals.
- Group J: Austria and Algeria both stand with three points – a draw sends both through. Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals – or Austria to be beaten by at least four.
